Research Catalog

Title

Africa in the new world : how global and domestic developments will impact by 2025 / Jakkie Cilliers.

Author

Cilliers, Jakkie

Publication

Tshwane (Pretoria), South Africa : Institute for Security Studies, 2008.

Items in the Library & Off-site

Details

Additional Authors

Institute for Security Studies (South Africa)

Description

vii, 150 p. : col. maps, col. charts; 21 cm.

Summary

The world is currently experiencing a massive change in the balance of power as influence and industry shift from the West to the East. Whilst African developments will not become a substantive driver and factor in global scenarios in the next two or three decades, the importance of the region will steadily increase. This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world. The first four 'megatrends' constitute those external developments that will impact upon Africa and over which it has little control, namely the global shift of power from West to East, the impact of climate change, globalisation, and state power and interdependence and complexity. The second set of 'African variables' reflects domestic developments: Africa's population dynamics, trade, democratisation/ governance, and peace and stability. Collectively the two sets of factors provide a glimpse of the possible emerging futures for the continent. Africa's future will be determined by its leadership and the choices that are made by Africa's elected and unelected Big Men -- not by the size of their ideas, but in the example they set in the daily decisions about contacts, conflict of interest and democratic accountability.

Series Statement

ISS monograph series ; no. 151

Uniform Title

ISS monograph series ; no. 151.

Subject

• Balance of power > Forecasting
• Climatic changes > Africa
• Globalization > Africa
• Sustainable development > Africa
• Democracy > Africa
• Africa > Economic conditions > 21st century
• Africa > Politics and government > 21st century
• Africa > Social conditions > 21st century

Note

• "October 2008." -- T.p.
• "The research on which this paper is based was made possible by the generous support of the Royal Danish Government, through their embassy in Pretoria, South Africa." -- P. [iv] of cover.
• "The world is currently experiencing a massive change in the balance of power as influence and industry shift from the West to the East. Whilst African developments will not become a substantive driver and factor in global scenarios in the next two or three decades, the importance of the region will steadily increase. This monograph looks at key shifts that will determine the future of Africa in the world. The first four 'megatrends' constitute those external developments that will impact upon Africa and over which it has little control, namely the global shift of power from West to East, the impact of climate change, globalisation, and state power and interdependence and complexity. The second set of 'African variables' reflects domestic developments: Africa's population dynamics, trade, democratisation/ governance, and peace and stability. Collectively the two sets of factors provide a glimpse of the possible emerging futures for the continent. Africa's future will be determined by its leadership and the choices that are made by Africa's elected and unelected Big Men -- not by the size of their ideas, but in the example they set in the daily decisions about contacts, conflict of interest and democratic accountability." -- P. [iv] of cover.

Bibliography (note)

• Includes bibliographical references (p. 132-150).

Additional Formats (note)

• Full text on the ISS website.

Biography (note)

• Dr Jakkie Cilliers is the Executive Director of the Institute for Security Studies. He holds a DLitt et Phil degree from the University of South Africa (Unisa) and co-founded the ISS in 1990. At present most of Dr Cilliers' interests relate to the emerging security architecture in Africa as reflected in the developments under the banner of the Peace and Security Council of the African Union. Awards and decorations include the Bronze Medal from the South African Society for the Advancement of Science and the H Bradlow Research Bursary. Dr Cilliers has presented numerous papers at conferences and seminars and published a number of books on various matters relating to peace and security in Africa. He is a regular commentator on local and international radio and television and has published widely. He is an Extraordinary Professor in the Department of Political Sciences, Faculty Humanities, at the University of Pretoria and serves on the International Advisory Board of the Geneva Centre for Security Policy (GCSP) and as independent non-executive director of the South African Banking Risk Information Centre (SABRIC).

Processing Action (note)

• committed to retain

Contents

1. Introduction -- 2. Megatrend One. The global shift of power from West to East -- The (relative) decline of the West -- The rise of the rest. -- 3. Megatrend Two. The impact of climate change -- The limits of growth -- Impact on Africa -- Interconnected challenges. -- 4. Megatrend Three. Globalisation and state power -- Distributed power -- A new global power -- A return of state power? -- Developed versus developing countries -- Ideology and Africa -- Civil society -- Globalisation and geopolitics. -- 5. Megatrend Four. Interdependence and complexity -- African connections -- Implications for governance -- A global deficit in management? -- Towards a global order -- Global inequality on the decline? -- A concentration of riches. -- 6. African variable one. A growing and dynamic population -- Africa's demographic transition -- Africa's youth bulge -- HIV/AIDS -- Urbanisation, poverty and insecurity -- Skills loss. -- 7. African variable two. Trade, aid and growth -- Commodities-based economic growth -- Oil, energy and growth -- Aid. -- 8. African variable three. Democratisation and governance -- Progress over several decades -- Democratisation for Africans? -- Corruption. -- 9. African variable four. Peace and stability -- Impact of democracy and external peacemaking -- African leadership -- Alarmism and despondency -- Policing Africa -- Global insecurity on the rise? -- 10. The importance of regional integration for African development. -- Political solidarity versus economic reality -- North Africa and the Horn -- A sub-regional imperative. -- 11. Conclusion. -- Bad news sells -- Key global trends -- China and Africa -- India and the vision of a developmental state -- Global threats to prosperity -- Implications for Africa -- The US and the UN -- Finally.

ISBN

• 9781920114480 (pbk.)
• 1920114483 (pbk.)

OCLC

298322966

Owning Institutions

Harvard Library