Research Catalog

Details

Additional authors

1. O'Mahony, Angela

Description

1. xxi, 88 pages : illustrations (some color); 28 cm

Summary

1. This report builds on earlier RAND research (e.g., Understanding and Influencing Public Support for Insurgency and Terrorism, 2012) that reviewed and integrated social science relevant to terrorism and insurgency. That research used qualitative conceptual causal models called ́⁰factor treeś⁰+С to identify the factors that contribute to various aspects of terrorism or insurgency at a slice in time and how the factors relate to each other qualitatively. This report goes beyond the conceptual and qualitative by specifying a prototype uncertainty-sensitive computational model for one of the factor trees from the earlier research, one that describes public support for terrorism and insurgency. The authors first detail their approach to designing such a model, emphasizing the challenges they encountered in assigning mathematical meaning to the factor treé⁰9Сs numerous factors and subfactors, identifying suitable ́⁰building blocḱ⁰+С combining algorithms, and the uncertainty in their values and the relationships among them. They then describe how they implemented the model in a high-level visual-programming environment, show how the model can be used for exploratory analysis under uncertainty, and discuss their initial experience with it. Methodologically, the work illustrates a new approach to causal, uncertainty-and-context-sensitive, social-science modeling. It also illustrates how such models can be reviewable, reusable, and potentially composable.

Series statement

1. RAND Corporation technical report series ; TR1220

Uniform title

1. Technical report (Rand Corporation) ; TR1220.

Subject

1. Terrorism -- Public opinion.
2. Insurgency -- Public opinion.
3. Terrorism -- Prevention.

Contents

1. Introduction -- Specifying the Model -- Implementation in a High-Level Language -- Looking Ahead to Exploratory Analysis Under Uncertainty -- Using the Model for Knowledge Elicitation, Discussion, and Diagnosis -- Appendix A: Primer on Factor Trees (a reprint) -- Appendix B: Verification and Validation -- Appendix C: Eliciting Factor Values -- Appendix D: Mathematics for "And" and "Or" Relationships.

Call number

1. JFF 17-322

Language

1. English

Bibliography (note)

1. Includes bibliographical references (pages 85-88).

Type of content

1. text

Type of medium

1. unmediated

Type of carrier

1. volume

Digital file characteristics

1. text file PDF

Connect to:

1. http://www.rand.org/pubs/technical_reports/TR1220.html
2. http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/technical_reports/TR1200/TR1220/RAND_TR1220.pdf

Added author

1. O'Mahony, Angela.

LCCN

1. 2013013214

Report no.

1. RAND/TR-1220-OSD

ISBN

1. 9780833079190 (pbk. ; alk. paper)
2. 0833079190 (pbk. ; alk. paper)